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tracking: marzipanandminutiae reading letters from 1818 is wild "it's that time of the year when I get colds for no apparent reason again" have some Clairitin hon marzipanandminutiae But also we're not becoming allergic to everything nowadays like certain white moms fear. Allergies have always existed. They were just talked about differently Like "oh clams always turn my stomach-". Or "what a pity he was taken from us at age 5" rosslynpaladin "Well we didn't have all this fancy chronic illness stuff in the Olden Days, what did people do then??" They died, Ashleigh rowantheexplorer This is a picture tracking bullet holes on Allied planes that encountered Nazi anti-aircraft fire in WW2 At first, the military wanted to reinforce those areas, because obviously that's where the ground crews observed the most damage on returning planes. Until Hungarian-born Jewish mathematician Abraham Wald pointed out that this was the damage on the planes that made it home, and the Allies should armor the areas where there are no dots at all, because those are the places where the planes won't survive when hit. This phenomenon is called survivorship bias, a logic error where you focus on things that survived when you should really be looking at things that didn't. We have higher rates of mental illness now? Maybe that's because we've stopped killing people for being "possessed" or "witches." Higher rate of allergies? Anaphylaxis kills, and does so really fast if you don't know what's happening. Higher claims of rape? Maybe victims are less afraid of coming forward. These problems were all happening before, but now we've reinforced the medical and social structures needed to help these people survive. And we still have a long way to go. Source: marzipanandminutiae 80,557 notes Survivorship bias
 tracking: marzipanandminutiae
 reading letters from 1818 is wild
 "it's that time of the year when I get colds
 for no apparent reason again" have some
 Clairitin hon
 marzipanandminutiae
 But also we're not becoming allergic to
 everything nowadays like certain white
 moms fear. Allergies have always existed.
 They were just talked about differently
 Like "oh clams always turn my stomach-".
 Or "what a pity he was taken from us at age
 5"
 rosslynpaladin
 "Well we didn't have all this fancy chronic
 illness stuff in the Olden Days, what did
 people do then??"
 They died, Ashleigh
 rowantheexplorer
 This is a picture tracking bullet holes
 on Allied planes that encountered Nazi
 anti-aircraft fire in WW2
 At first, the military wanted to reinforce
 those areas, because obviously that's
 where the ground crews observed the
 most damage on returning planes. Until
 Hungarian-born Jewish mathematician
 Abraham Wald pointed out that this was
 the damage on the planes that made it
 home, and the Allies should armor the areas
 where there are no dots at all, because
 those are the places where the planes won't
 survive when hit. This phenomenon is called
 survivorship bias, a logic error where you
 focus on things that survived when you
 should really be looking at things that didn't.
 We have higher rates of mental illness now?
 Maybe that's because we've stopped killing
 people for being "possessed" or "witches."
 Higher rate of allergies? Anaphylaxis kills,
 and does so really fast if you don't know
 what's happening. Higher claims of rape?
 Maybe victims are less afraid of coming
 forward. These problems were all happening
 before, but now we've reinforced the medical
 and social structures needed to help these
 people survive. And we still have a long way
 to go.
 Source: marzipanandminutiae
 80,557 notes
Survivorship bias

Survivorship bias

tracking: Trade Pokmon Auricular Nintendo DS and secrets with your friends! Trade you my WeaVile Cor MUnChla ays some nintendo Wi-Fi MunChlax is pretty hot.. fry again. Go to NintendoWiFi.comm to get started! Selection may vary at retail. Games, system, and headset sold separately. Pokéde tabaquis-barking: kiyotakamine: kiyotakamine: munchlax is pretty hot happy 10 year anniversary of munchlax being pretty hot Actually know what reblogging again bc the girl with the white ds knows what the FUCK is up and pink girl is either a dumbass or a scammer. In DPP (Diamond/Pearl/Platinum) sneasel shows up on five different routes, and then evolves into weavile when leveled with a razor claw at night. Razor claws aren’t hard to find either, so while there’s minimal effort involved here, weavile isn’t really special. Munchlax, though? Jesus fuck. Jesus fucking christ. Munchlax in DPP is one of the most difficult Pokémon in ANY of the games—if not the absolute most difficult. DPP has a mechanic where you could slather honey on certain trees, and six hours later a Pokémon would turn up on the tree. Several of the Pokémon you could get this way were common, but some could ONLY be obtained from honey trees. You couldn’t change the DS system’s time to speed things up, because the trees ran on their own counter—so you HAD to wait six hours for a Pokémon to show up. It gets worse. There were 21 of these honey trees in the game, and regardless of the tree’s location, and tree could summon any of the “honey tree Pokémon…” Except. Fucking. Munchlax. Only FOUR trees in the game had the potential to summon Munchlax. Which trees, you ask? Guess. No, literally, take a fucking guess—because the four trees that can summon Munchlax are decided at random based on your trainer ID and secret ID. There is NO way to determine which trees they are unless you feel like hacking into your game’s data and then doing some weird complicated math. That’s not all. You thought that was all? You thought Munchlax was a merciful god that would take pity on your tiny, pathetic body? Oh no. Not even close. Munchlax isn’t done with you yet, Munchlax is going to peel you like a fucking mango and laugh while you cry. Munchlax only has a 1% encounter rate. ONE. PERCENT. As in 1/100. So to recap—4/21 honey trees (and you don’t know which ones) have a 1% chance of summoning this little motherfucker once every six hours. That’s it. No fast tracking, no cheats, and no workarounds. Munchlax in DPP is the holy grail of hard to find Pokémon. And pinky here has the AUDACITY to offer the MUCH more easily obtainable weavile for it. Fuck that. Fuck that!!! White DS girl knows what the FUCK is up!!! In conclusion; Munchlax is pretty hot… Try again. Bitch.
 tracking: Trade Pokmon
 Auricular Nintendo DS
 and secrets
 with your
 friends!
 Trade you my
 WeaVile
 Cor
 MUnChla
 ays some
 nintendo
 Wi-Fi
 MunChlax
 is pretty hot..
 fry again.
 Go to
 NintendoWiFi.comm
 to get started!
 Selection may vary at retail. Games, system, and headset sold separately.
 Pokéde
tabaquis-barking:
kiyotakamine:

kiyotakamine:
munchlax is pretty hot
happy 10 year anniversary of munchlax being pretty hot

Actually know what reblogging again bc the girl with the white ds knows what the FUCK is up and pink girl is either a dumbass or a scammer. 
In DPP (Diamond/Pearl/Platinum) sneasel shows up on five different routes, and then evolves into weavile when leveled with a razor claw at night. Razor claws aren’t hard to find either, so while there’s minimal effort involved here, weavile isn’t really special.
Munchlax, though? Jesus fuck. Jesus fucking christ. Munchlax in DPP is one of the most difficult Pokémon in ANY of the games—if not the absolute most difficult. DPP has a mechanic where you could slather honey on certain trees, and six hours later a Pokémon would turn up on the tree. Several of the Pokémon you could get this way were common, but some could ONLY be obtained from honey trees. You couldn’t change the DS system’s time to speed things up, because the trees ran on their own counter—so you HAD to wait six hours for a Pokémon to show up.
It gets worse. There were 21 of these honey trees in the game, and regardless of the tree’s location, and tree could summon any of the “honey tree Pokémon…”
Except. Fucking. Munchlax.
Only FOUR trees in the game had the potential to summon Munchlax. Which trees, you ask? Guess. No, literally, take a fucking guess—because the four trees that can summon Munchlax are decided at random based on your trainer ID and secret ID. There is NO way to determine which trees they are unless you feel like hacking into your game’s data and then doing some weird complicated math.
That’s not all. You thought that was all? You thought Munchlax was a merciful god that would take pity on your tiny, pathetic body? Oh no. Not even close. Munchlax isn’t done with you yet, Munchlax is going to peel you like a fucking mango and laugh while you cry. 
Munchlax only has a 1% encounter rate. 
ONE. PERCENT. As in 1/100. 
So to recap—4/21 honey trees (and you don’t know which ones) have a 1% chance of summoning this little motherfucker once every six hours. That’s it. No fast tracking, no cheats, and no workarounds. Munchlax in DPP is the holy grail of hard to find Pokémon.
And pinky here has the AUDACITY to offer the MUCH more easily obtainable weavile for it. Fuck that. Fuck that!!! White DS girl knows what the FUCK is up!!!
In conclusion;
Munchlax is pretty hot… Try again.

Bitch.

tabaquis-barking: kiyotakamine: kiyotakamine: munchlax is pretty hot happy 10 year anniversary of munchlax being pretty hot Actually kn...

tracking: DAPASTOR YOO uncleromeo: feet-man-ahhh-sucker-of-the-toes: emotionsclashagainstemotions: thatpettyblackgirl: Because we know they value the lives of dogs over blac… nevermind 😒 the ironic part is, racism is probably why the cop was so convinced the drugs were there. the dog was doing its job, which is not reacting to drugs that don’t exist. the cop, on other hand, saw a black man, and was sure he had drugs. Drug dogs have also been found to be ineffective in many cases, basing their reactions on the cop’s body language. “For the purpose of this post, though, I want to focus on what’s missing from Colb’s analysis and, should the Supreme Court decide to hear the case, will almost certainly also be missing from oral arguments, the court’s ruling and most discussion of the case: that narcotics-detecting dogs and their handlers aren’t very good at discerning the presence of illegal drugs. Multiple analyses of drug-dog alerts have consistently shown alarmingly high error rates — with some close to and exceeding 50 percent. In effect, some of these K-9 units are worse than a coin flip. For some units, the reason may be sinister — the police handler may have trained the dog to alert on command. I’ve asked dog trainers to look at videos of roadside searches in the past, and, on more than one occasion, they said they saw clear indications that a dog was being cued to alert. But it needn’t be so malicious. While dogs are indeed capable of sniffing out illicit drugs, we’ve bred into them another overriding trait: the desire to please. Even drug dogs with conscientious handlers will read their handlers’ unintentional body language and alert accordingly. A 2010 study found that packages designed to trick handlers into thinking there were drugs inside them were much more likely to trigger false alerts than packages designed to trick the dogs. (Police-dog handlers and trainers responded to that study by refusing to cooperate with further research.) Many drug dogs, then, are not alerting to the presence of drugs, but to their handlers’ suspicions about the presence of drugs. And searches based on little more than law enforcement’s suspicions are exactly what the Fourth Amendment is supposed to prevent. (Tracking dogs that pick suspects out of “scent lineups” have had similar problems, and have led to numerous wrongful convictions.)” ^^^!!!
 tracking: DAPASTOR YOO
uncleromeo:

feet-man-ahhh-sucker-of-the-toes:


emotionsclashagainstemotions:


thatpettyblackgirl:

Because we know they value the lives of dogs over blac… nevermind 😒

the ironic part is, racism is probably why the cop was so convinced the drugs were there. the dog was doing its job, which is not reacting to drugs that don’t exist. the cop, on other hand, saw a black man, and was sure he had drugs.


Drug dogs have also been found to be ineffective in many cases, basing their reactions on the cop’s body language.
“For the purpose of this post, though, I want to focus on what’s missing from Colb’s analysis and, should the Supreme Court decide to hear the case, will almost certainly also be missing from oral arguments, the court’s ruling and most discussion of the case: that narcotics-detecting dogs and their handlers aren’t very good at discerning the presence of illegal drugs. Multiple analyses of drug-dog alerts have consistently shown alarmingly high error rates — with some close to and exceeding 50 percent. In effect, some of these K-9 units are worse than a coin flip.
For some units, the reason may be sinister — the police handler may have trained the dog to alert on command. I’ve asked dog trainers to look at videos of roadside searches in the past, and, on more than one occasion, they said they saw clear indications that a dog was being cued to alert.
But it needn’t be so malicious. While dogs are indeed capable of sniffing out illicit drugs, we’ve bred into them another overriding trait: the desire to please. Even drug dogs with conscientious handlers will read their handlers’ unintentional body language and alert accordingly. A 2010 study found that packages designed to trick handlers into thinking there were drugs inside them were much more likely to trigger false alerts than packages designed to trick the dogs. (Police-dog handlers and trainers responded to that study by refusing to cooperate with further research.) Many drug dogs, then, are not alerting to the presence of drugs, but to their handlers’ suspicions about the presence of drugs. And searches based on little more than law enforcement’s suspicions are exactly what the Fourth Amendment is supposed to prevent. (Tracking dogs that pick suspects out of “scent lineups” have had similar problems, and have led to numerous wrongful convictions.)”


^^^!!!

uncleromeo: feet-man-ahhh-sucker-of-the-toes: emotionsclashagainstemotions: thatpettyblackgirl: Because we know they value the live...

tracking: poiisons: frankieromustdie: here’s me tracking the drums for Joyriding in my underwear
nsfw
 tracking: poiisons:

frankieromustdie: here’s me tracking the drums for Joyriding in my underwear

poiisons: frankieromustdie: here’s me tracking the drums for Joyriding in my underwear

tracking: a Live Chat with Amazon.com- Google Chrome https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/c45e-9461b3f74d40&token &callMeC2Cld-e7bd2 Sound End Chat 3 Chat You are now connected to Amazon from Amazon.com Me: Tracking shows delivered but shipment not recieved Amazon: Warmest greetingsmy name is Thor Me: Greeting, Thor. Can I be Odin? Odin, Father, How art thy doing on this here fine day? Amazon: Thor, my son. Agony raises upon my life Me: Amazon: This is outrageous! Who dares defy The All Father Odin! What has occured to cause this agony? Me: I am afraid the book I ordered to defeat our enemies has been misplaced. How can we keep Valhalla intact without our sacred book. Amazon: This is blasphemy! Wherever this book has been taken to, I shall make it my duty to get it back to youl I fear it is Loki but I dare not blame him for such things. I shall have your fortune returned to you and thereafter we can begin to create a new quest in order to get the book back to you. Very well my son. Me: Allow me some time to round up my allies and complete this please Father. Amazon: Me: Do it for me Thor, but most imporantly do it for the mortals whose destiny (and grades) rely on this book. Amazon: Alas, the treasure has been returned to you. You now need to reinstate the book into your archive so that you may yet receive it soon I shall have the Valkyrie deliver it to you as fast as their wings can move Me: ok so roleplay aside i have my money back and i reorder the book haha yes I have refunded you and you need to reorder the book Amazon: Me: Great Have you placed the order Amazon: Me: let me do that done Amazon: Okay let me edit it for you That good? Me: Wow hooking me up with one day delivery? Sweet haha yeah man gotta get you your book asap! Amazon: Me: Ive heard Amazon had great customer service and this just proves it! thanks man Amazon: No problemIs there any other issue or question that I can help you with? Me: Nah that was it. Really appreciate it Anytime bro. Have a great day. Goodbye Odin Amazon: Me: Bye my son Send Amazon from Amazon.com is online Secure Connection lolzandtrollz:Best Customer Service Ever
 tracking: a Live Chat with Amazon.com- Google Chrome
 https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/c45e-9461b3f74d40&token &callMeC2Cld-e7bd2
 Sound
 End Chat 3
 Chat
 You are now connected to Amazon from Amazon.com
 Me: Tracking shows delivered but shipment not recieved
 Amazon: Warmest greetingsmy name is Thor
 Me: Greeting, Thor. Can I be Odin?
 Odin, Father, How art thy doing on this here fine day?
 Amazon:
 Thor, my son. Agony raises upon my life
 Me:
 Amazon: This is outrageous! Who dares defy The All Father Odin! What has occured to cause
 this agony?
 Me: I am afraid the book I ordered to defeat our enemies has been misplaced. How can we
 keep Valhalla intact without our sacred book.
 Amazon: This is blasphemy! Wherever this book has been taken to, I shall make it my duty
 to get it back to youl I fear it is Loki but I dare not blame him for such things.
 I shall have your fortune returned to you and thereafter we can begin to create a new quest
 in order to get the book back to you.
 Very well my son.
 Me:
 Allow me some time to round up my allies and complete this please Father.
 Amazon:
 Me: Do it for me Thor, but most imporantly do it for the mortals whose destiny (and grades)
 rely on this book.
 Amazon: Alas, the treasure has been returned to you. You now need to reinstate the book
 into your archive so that you may yet receive it soon
 I shall have the Valkyrie deliver it to you as fast as their wings can move
 Me: ok so roleplay aside i have my money back and i reorder the book
 haha yes I have refunded you and you need to reorder the book
 Amazon:
 Me: Great
 Have you placed the order
 Amazon:
 Me: let me do that
 done
 Amazon: Okay let me edit it for you
 That good?
 Me: Wow hooking me up with one day delivery? Sweet
 haha yeah man gotta get you your book asap!
 Amazon:
 Me:
 Ive heard Amazon had great customer service and this just proves it! thanks man
 Amazon: No problemIs there any other issue or question that I can help you with?
 Me:
 Nah that was it. Really appreciate it
 Anytime bro. Have a great day. Goodbye Odin
 Amazon:
 Me: Bye my son
 Send
 Amazon from Amazon.com is online
 Secure Connection
lolzandtrollz:Best Customer Service Ever

lolzandtrollz:Best Customer Service Ever